Bill's 4th Annual Summer Outlook for Johnson County

Issued May 25, 2009- Memorial Day

"Coming El Nino combined with wet spring conditions have us looking at a cooler and wetter than normal summer- certainly when compared to last year, but also when compared to normal."

Instead of the usual "long-winded" Seasonal Outlook, loaded with graphics, I'm taking a much more simple approach to this year's Summer Outlook, Mountain City Weather Center's 4th Annual Summer Outlook, I might add. Lots of work has begun concerning bringing a new and improved look to the site and that's the primary reason for the more simplified, "overview" of what to expect this summer! We hope to roll out the ALL NEW Mountain City Weather Center sometime late this year or early 2010.

The summer of 2009 is certainly going to be classified in a different category when compared to the dry and hot summer of just a year ago. A couple of factors are coming together to bring about the change to a cooler and wetter summer, not only compared to last year, but compared to normal.

The two primary factors for a cooler and wetter summer include 1.) A developing El Nino and 2.) A very wet spring season across the TN Valley, southeast, and southern Appalachian region.

We're certainly moving out of the weak La Nina which dominated the '08-'09 winter and in it's place, a developing El Nino has gotten under way. This is more of a reactive El Nino, and I don't look for it to gain the level of a moderate to strong El Nino, instead probably a weak to border line moderate event. It will be interesting to watch this situation play out as we begin heading into the late summer and fall months as I already have an idea of how next winter is going to play out (snow fans, stay tuned). At the same time, the developing El Nino should create much less tropical activity, perhaps even BELOW NORMAL. That said, the Carolina coastline should be on the look out for the threat of a major blow from a cat. 3 or higher hurricane as we get into the "meat of the season."

The second driving factor in what should make this a cooler, wetter summer is the exceptionally wet spring the southeast, TN Valley, and southern Appalachian region has experienced. Time and time again, rain storms pounded the region this past spring, wiping away the drought conditions in place only a few short months before hand (the good news, of course). Lots of water is now locked into the soil and the overall pattern should continue to promote at least normal precipitation through the summer months, if not a bit above normal with the developing El Nino. A wet spring tends to promote a cooler than normal summer looking back at the archives, and it really only makes sense when you stop and think about it. The summer sunshine is having to spend much more energy trying to evaporate the saturated soil rather than sit and scortch the region. That said, despite the cooler than normal temperatures expected, humidity will be 'a plenty this summer, due to all of that moisture locked in the ground.

Finally, one more item that I'm closely looking into is the sunspot activity, or I should say, lack thereof. The sun has been MIGHTY quiet for the past several months and this is just another player on the field (not to mention hundreds more) that leads me to believe we're not looking at any sort of sustained above normal warmth any time soon.

Bottom Line Numbers Please!

• Temperatures average 2 degrees below normal for the summer (June, July, and August)
• Precipitation averages slightly above normal...110% of normal for the summer months (June, July, and August)
• Hurricane season is much less active than what we've been used to as of late, and chances are that it's less active than normal as a whole. That said, the Carolinas north should keep abreast of "home brew" development later in the season.

**Bill's Annual Winter Outlook: Coming Oct. '09!**