Bill's 5th Annual Winter Outlook for Johnson County

Issued Oct. 31, 2008

"I think when we look back at the Winter of '08-'09, it'll be one that'll remind those of what winter should be like in Johnson County, perhaps even a bit snowier."

It really is amazing how fast time flies. When I look back on the different outlooks we've published here on MCWC, it's hard to believe this will be our FIFTH Winter Outlook! Of course, every year up to this point we've posted our outlook on the first Friday of October- well before any other media publishes their outlook. In developing this year's outlook (which begins during the late spring months) I decided that I wanted to change things up a bit, thus the post on the last Friday of October versus the first. The following "bullet points" are KEY ideas to this year's winter forecast. That said, as is always the case, I have a couple of "super secret" formulas and theories that I test in developing each outlook that I just cannot release... :-)

Sitting Just About As Close To Neutral As We Have Been In A While

If you want to get technical with things, I guess you would call the winter of '07-'08 as one with a very weak La Nina. That said, it's so weak, we could just as easily say that we're currently in a neutral state of the ENSO. This provides an added challenge to the southern Appalachian's snow season, as we've experienced some of our snowiest winters and least snowy winters during neutral years. That's when one must dig a little deeper...

VERY Cold Air Up North

For several months now, the temperature pattern for our friends up in Alaska has been that of moderately (2 degrees) to significantly (3+ degrees) below average. This is always of interest to me in that if we can get the jet to line up just right, there's lots of cold air for the taking (case in point, our January-like temperatures during the last week of October). Of course, as the jet matures as we head into the winter months, it'll be easier to tap that colder than normal air that our friends "up north" are enjoying.

Bye Bye Southeast Ridge

For the past few winters a strong ridge of high pressure has dominated the southeastern region of the United States. This has kept the track of the true winter storms (or at least the majority) just west of the southern Appalachians. With the southeastern ridge now gone, look for a more classic track from these winter storms- moving from the Gulf of Mexico into GA and the central Carolinas, as opposed to tracking over our region and west. That, of course, would put the region on the colder and typically more snowy side of the storm.

On-Going Drought

The southern Appalachian region and most of the southeast in general has been suffering through exceptionally dry conditions over the past few years. This should be at least somewhat of a worry to most snow lovers out there, as "drought usually breeds drought." It's going to take several years of normal to above normal precipitation to completely erase the very dry conditions our immediate region has experienced over the past few years. Can we "bust through" this winter and finally begin to put a "dent" in the dry pattern? The forecast below has those details.

Bill's 5th Annual Winter Outlook Numbers And Official Forecast

With everything mentioned above, I think the mountains of Johnson County are in store for one of the snowier and colder winters we've seen in a few years, at least. In some of the longer term modeling, it appears as if this winter will get off to a rather quick start, with December potentially being a nice month for you snow lovers out there. Another item I want to point out is the fact that we should see an increase in the number of northwest upslope snow storms this year. Once the jet matures, I believe the winter of '08-'09 will turn into a "clipper" winter. However, unlike last year, look for a lot of these clipper systems to track further south.

The other encouraging item is our idea that most of the classic "big boy" GOM winter storms should get back to a further east track, as opposed to tracking over our region and points west. Remember, for an area that averages 30 inches of snowfall per year (such as Mountain City), it only takes one of these storms to make some headway into our seasonal snowfall.

The Numbers Please....

Projected 2008-2009 Mountain City Snowfall (from first flake to last flake): 40 inches (10 inches above normal).

Projected 2008-2009 Mountain City Winter Temperatures (from December-February): 1 degree below normal

*Remember, the above numbers are for Mountain City. Typically, areas such as Trade, Forge Creek, Stone Mountain, and Snake Mountain will accumulate higher snowfall amounts while areas such as the southern portion of Neva and Butler accumulate lighter snowfall amounts.

Thanks go out to the following for graphics. Please be sure to check out these great websites.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/anomsst.shtml

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn70174_1yr.gif

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